Bitcoin Bear Market Signals Are Flashing, Analysts Warn
The Bitcoin bear market conversation is no longer limited to fringe pessimists. A growing set of on-chain and market signals now suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a new bearish phase, even as prices remain well above historical cycle lows.
Bitcoin demand has weakened steadily over recent months. Large investors are buying more slowly, derivatives activity has cooled, and ETF flows have quietly turned negative. Together, these shifts paint a picture of exhaustion rather than accumulation.
Bitcoin currently trades just above $88,000, down roughly 30 percent from its October peak above $126,000. While that level may still feel high, analysts warn that price alone can be misleading when demand trends roll over.
Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Gaining Strength
Analysts tracking long-term demand patterns note that Bitcoin slipped below its historical growth trend in early October. In past cycles, that shift marked the transition from bull to bear markets.
This cycle followed a familiar pattern. Bitcoin demand surged in waves, first driven by spot ETF approvals, then by political optimism, and later by aggressive buying from corporate treasury players. That momentum, however, has slowed noticeably.
The concern is not that demand has collapsed, but that it is no longer accelerating. When demand growth peaks and begins to fade, price often follows with a delay.
ETF Flows Are No Longer a Tailwind
One of the strongest supports for Bitcoin earlier in the cycle came from US-based spot ETFs. That trend has now reversed.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, ETF holdings declined instead of rising. This marks a sharp contrast from the same period a year earlier, when institutional inflows helped fuel Bitcoin’s climb.
When ETFs turn into net sellers, it removes a critical source of steady demand that had previously absorbed market volatility.
Large Holders Are Slowing Down
Another warning sign comes from wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This group includes institutional players, ETFs, and corporate treasury accounts.
Historically, these holders drive the bulk of demand during bull markets. Right now, their growth rate has dropped below trend. Analysts note that a similar slowdown appeared at the end of 2021, just before Bitcoin entered its 2022 bear market.
When large players pause or slow accumulation, it often signals caution rather than confidence.
Technical Structure Has Shifted
Price action is also telling a different story. Bitcoin recently fell below its 365-day moving average, a long-term technical level that has historically separated bullish and bearish regimes.
In previous cycles, once Bitcoin broke below this level after demand peaked, deeper pullbacks followed. Analysts now see Bitcoin’s realized price as a possible long-term reference point if the downtrend continues.
How Low Could the Bitcoin Bear Market Go
Some analysts project a potential cycle low near $56,000. That would represent a roughly 55 percent decline from the all-time high and a further drop from current levels.
Before that, Bitcoin may find intermediate support near $70,000, a zone where buyers could attempt to stabilize price action. Whether that support holds will depend on whether demand re-accelerates or continues to fade.
Not Everyone Is Bearish Yet
Despite growing caution, not all analysts agree that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is broken. Some argue that institutional adoption and evolving market structure make older four-year cycle models less relevant.
Still, even optimistic voices acknowledge that Bitcoin may need more time to reset before its next major move higher.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin bear market narrative is being built on data, not fear. Slowing demand, weaker ETF flows, cautious large holders, and broken long-term technical levels all point in the same direction.
This does not mean Bitcoin is finished. It means the market may be entering a phase where patience matters more than excitement. Historically, these periods feel uncomfortable, but they also lay the groundwork for the next cycle.
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